Wednesday, November 14, 2007

foreign exchange market

foreign exchange market is a zero sum game in which there are many experienced well-capitalized professional traders (e.g. working for banks) who can devote their attentions full time to trading. An inexperienced retail trader will have a significant information disadvantage compared to these traders.

Retail traders are - almost by definition - undercapitalized. Thus they are subject to the problem of Gambler's Ruin. In a fair game (one with no information advantages) between two players that continues until one trader goes bankrupt, the player with the lower amount of capital has a higher probability of going bankrupt first. Since the retail speculator is effectively playing against the market as a whole - which has nearly infinite capital - he will almost certainly go bankrupt.

The retail trader always pays the bid/ask spread which makes his odds of winning less than those of a fair game. Additional costs may include margin interest, or if a spot position is kept open for more than one day the trade must be "resettled" each day, each time costing the full bid/ask spread.
Foreign exchange reserves (also called Forex reserves) in a strict sense are only the foreign currency deposits held by central banks and monetary authorities. However, the term foreign exchange reserves in popular usage commonly includes foreign exchange and gold, SDRs and IMF reserve position as this total figure is more readily available, however it is accurately deemed as official reserves or international reserves. These are assets of the central banks which are held in different reserve currencies such as the dollar, euro and yen, and which are used to back its liabilities, e.g. the local currency issued, and the various bank reserves deposited with the central bank, by the government or financial institutions.

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